AFL Prediction Model

This week

Semi-Finals

Probabilities are for regulation time; a draw in finals leads to extra time.

Fri 11 Sep · 8:10 PM Perth Stadium

F FremantleHome 48.4%

G GeelongAway 50.4%

Model call Geelong by 1 1.2% draw · 80% range: Geelong by 43 to Fremantle by 41

Strongest pre-match signals

Based on pre-match data only.

Scoring shots Recent shots at goal before this match.

25.7 32.9

Edge: Geelong Estimated margin influence: 3.9 points toward Geelong

Longer-term margin form A slower-moving view of scoring margin over prior matches.

14.3 26.1

Edge: Geelong Estimated margin influence: 2.7 points toward Geelong

Inside 50s, longer term Slower-moving forward-50 entry form.

53.6 60.3

Edge: Geelong Estimated margin influence: 1.6 points toward Geelong

Team strength rating Opponent-adjusted results rating before the match.

1684.6 1745.9

Edge: Geelong Estimated margin influence: 1.5 points toward Geelong

Estimated player strength Pre-match rolling ratings for the club's most recent lineup.

8.9 9.5

Edge: Geelong Estimated margin influence: 1.5 points toward Geelong

Injuries, team changes and conditions may affect the result.

Sat 12 Sep · 7:35 PM Gabba

BL Brisbane LionsHome 64.2%

A AdelaideAway 34.7%

Model call Brisbane Lions by 12 1.1% draw · 80% range: Adelaide by 30 to Brisbane Lions by 55

Strongest pre-match signals

Based on pre-match data only.

Scoring shots Recent shots at goal before this match.

32.6 26.2

Edge: Brisbane Lions Estimated margin influence: 3.8 points toward Brisbane Lions

Venue familiarity Difference in prior matches played at this venue.

5.2 2.6

Edge: Brisbane Lions Estimated margin influence: 2.5 points toward Brisbane Lions

Team experience Average match experience of recent teams.

157.3 106.4

Edge: Brisbane Lions Estimated margin influence: 1.2 points toward Brisbane Lions

Team strength rating Opponent-adjusted results rating before the match.

1701.3 1656.3

Edge: Brisbane Lions Estimated margin influence: 1.1 points toward Brisbane Lions

Travel advantage Approximate extra travel required of the away team.

0.0 1600.0

Edge: Brisbane Lions Estimated margin influence: 1.0 points toward Brisbane Lions

Injuries, team changes and conditions may affect the result.

How predictions are made

Key prediction indicators

The 2022 test impact is the extra average margin error after an indicator was shuffled. Higher means it was more useful to the model, not that it directly adds points.

Indicator 2022 test impact

Longer-term margin form

Scoring margin from earlier matches, updated slowly so roughly the last five to ten games describe sustained form rather than one result.

+1.5 points extra average error after shuffling

Team strength rating

An Elo-style rating that starts each club near 1500, adjusts for opponent strength and result margin, and moves one-third toward average each season.

+1.16 points extra average error after shuffling

Scoring shots

Recent goals plus behinds. It measures how often a team creates a scoring opportunity, regardless of whether those shots were converted.

+0.57 points extra average error after shuffling

Expected-score defence

The expected score conceded from recent opposition chances. Lower values indicate that a team is allowing fewer or lower-quality opportunities.

+0.42 points extra average error after shuffling

Inside 50s, longer term

Forward-50 entries across prior matches, updated slowly to capture sustained territory and chance creation.

+0.23 points extra average error after shuffling

Estimated player strength

Rolling AFL player-rating output for each club's most recent lineup, with limited samples pulled toward a player's established rating.

+0.22 points extra average error after shuffling

Recent versus longer-term form

Recent form gives the newest match 30% weight. Longer-term form gives it 12%.

Match-level margin influence

Open “Why this prediction?” to see each leading signal's estimated margin influence. These are model effects, not causal claims.